The hottest leading paper enterprises in the Pearl

The price of leading paper enterprises in the Pearl River Delta rose by 50, and the paperboard factories rose by 3%

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core tip: [China Packaging News] Introduction: November is just the beginning of the month, affected by the imbalance between supply and demand, carton paper, corrugated base paper and white cardboard have fallen, and the market is in a miserable situation. However,

[China Packaging News] Introduction: November is just the beginning of the month. Affected by the imbalance between supply and demand, box board paper, corrugated base paper and white cardboard fell one after another, and the market fell into a miserable situation. However, the price of paper always fluctuates. Today, the market has heard the news of price rise, and it is the linkage of packaging paper and paperboard

this afternoon, the paper industry in the Pearl River Delta once again heard the news of the rise in the price of base paper. A leading enterprise announced an increase of 50 yuan/ton for its products. At the same time, a number of corrugated board factories in Dongguan also issued a contact letter for price adjustment, announcing a 3% increase on the original basis from November 10

compared with the previous increase of 200% and 8%, the increase of base paper and paperboard this time is quite mild, but it also attracted enough attention from the industry. Will this paper price be a turning point? If you don't stock in time, when the paper price goes crazy, you really regret it! This is the general mentality of the packaging industry

in view, the packaging and printing industry can basically set the tone with "the future is rising prices, and the rise is tortuous". In a word: it is necessary to raise prices, because the cost is there

when China's economy is still keeping the working table and operation panel clean and using a prudent and loose monetary policy, the main melody of various commodities is probably rising, which is basically no doubt. Similarly, affected by the rise of various cost factors, the packaging industry, including packaging materials, will also focus on price increases

1. The downtime of 2018 paper mill exceeds any time. In the first October of 2018, the news of large-scale shutdown of the paper mill came out almost every month. Some small and medium-sized paper mills have not started much this year because of the shortage of raw materials and the high price of national waste. Obviously, the paper mill is on the right path, although there is still a long way to go before the new balance of supply and demand

2. Factory rent soared. In the past year, the price rise has shown a strange situation. Although the paper price has not soared, the factory rent has soared. Taking the Pearl River Delta as an example, the price of many packaging enterprises' intensive factories has reached 20 yuan/square meter, and some even exceeded 30 yuan/square meter. Nevertheless, it's still hard to find a room. If you hesitate a little, you won't have your share. In Dongguan, Chang'an, Dalingshan and other places, because they are close to Shenzhen, or driven by some large enterprises, factory prices have soared since the second half of last year, and some factories have been close to 30 yuan/square meter. In the second tier town street like Changping, the factory price is also close to the 20 yuan mark. Shuixiang district has always been regarded as a synonym for "cheap". Now the factory price can scare many bosses. Compared with two years ago, the price of factory buildings has increased by at least 40%

3. Social security fee to tax. From January 1, 2019, the social security fee will be levied by the tax department. The impact of the fee to tax reform on the vast majority of packaging and printing enterprises is more similar. Because these enterprises basically pay social security according to the minimum wage standard, and only buy social security for a few people, and most enterprises do not even pay social security for employees at all. After the social security regulation, the labor cost of the packaging industry will increase significantly. I'm afraid the only way out for enterprises is to raise prices

4. RMB devaluation. In 2018, the RMB exchange rate showed a downward trend, breaking through 7% without suspension. Customers have made good design plans, and the resulting expected rise in the price of raw materials will promote the price rise. In fact, over the past decade, China has issued an astonishing amount of money, and its real value against the US dollar may be difficult to match the current 1:7 exchange rate. Coupled with the downturn in domestic demand, the government urgently needs to expand exports to alleviate the downward pressure on the economy. Therefore, the possibility of a jump in the RMB exchange rate and a sharp rise in raw material prices cannot be ruled out

5. The national macro policy turns to inflation. At present, the property market foam has suffocated the living space of the manufacturing industry, but it cannot pierce the property market foam. In this dilemma, it cannot be ruled out that the state will take the means of inflation to significantly increase the wages of employees, raise the prices of consumer goods, and return the ratio of house prices to income to normal. At present, national governance, if equipped with computers, seems to be moving steadily towards controllable inflation. Therefore, the price rise of industrial products is the general trend

then, can the price of paper rise? It seems hard to say this time, but it will rise sooner or later

although large paper mills cut prices sharply in the early stage, they showed a reluctance to sell. It is likely that the purpose of the price reduction of large paper mills is to oppress small and medium-sized paper mills that use high price national waste, so that the production capacity of the paper industry can be cleared as soon as possible. Therefore, a considerable number of manufacturers did not grab enough low-cost paper. Stimulated by the demand of the double 11, these manufacturers still have a strong desire to buy

as a paper giant with an output value of tens of billions, their prediction of China's macroeconomic policies is obviously more advanced. After all, experts are experts. On the one hand, large paper mills control a large number of output, but also show a mentality of reluctant to sell. Perhaps they are waiting for a tipping point of large price increases. The tipping point may be the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, or the introduction of another 100 trillion level stimulus policy

however, one of the most worrying things seems to be developing in a direction that is not conducive to consumer materials such as wrapping paper, which may be the decisive factor for the rise and fall of base paper. Compared with the downturn of consumer materials such as base paper, steel, cement, coal and other infrastructure related materials are hot. The reason is self-evident. It can be seen from the high-frequency friction and wear experimental machine excavator index and sweat mustard mustard index. In short, the state's massive infrastructure construction has led to a sharp reduction in residents' funds for consumption, and ultimately affected the market of consumer materials

in a word, we should accurately grasp the price trend of wrapping paper, first, the speed of demand contraction, second, the trend of RMB exchange rate, and third, the speed of money printing machine