2008 review and 2009 of the hottest domestic natur

2022-09-20
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Review of domestic natural rubber market in 2008 and outlook for 2009

I. price trend of natural rubber in 2008

in 2008, the prices of Thailand's No. 3 cigarette glue (RSS3) and Indonesia's No. 20 standard glue (sir2o) surged in the first half of the year, and plummeted continuously in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, compared with the highest price of the whole year, the decline was close to 7O%. Although the spot price of domestic No. 5 standard glue (SCR5) produced in both domestic production and marketing regions followed the trend of foreign spot prices, compared with foreign countries, the trend was weak at the beginning of the year, and rose sharply after entering the cutting period. After the second half of the year, the price turned sharply downward, with a decline of nearly 65% compared with the highest price of the whole year at the end of the year

(I) major foreign production areas. In 2008, the average price of RSS3 in Thailand was 2615 dollars/ton, an increase of 12O dollars/ton over the average price of the previous year. The highest price was 3345 dollars/ton in June, and the lowest price was 1120 dollars/ton in mid December; The annual average price of sir2o in Indonesia was 2553 US dollars/ton, an increase of 392 US dollars/ton over the average price of the previous year. The highest price was 3295 US dollars/ton in early July, and the lowest price was 1110 US dollars/ton in mid February; The average monthly price of maturing spot goods in Singapore futures market was US $2583/ton, an increase of US $316/ton over the average price of the previous year. The highest price was US $33l5o/ton in June, and the lowest price was US $102o/ton in mid December

(II) main domestic production areas. The average transaction price of domestic SCR5 standard glue in Haikou in 2008 was 23835 yuan/ton, an increase of 4171 yuan/ton over the average price of the previous year. The highest price was 27804 yuan/ton in June, and the lowest price was 10858 yuan/ton in mid December. The shear strength value was yuan/ton measured by placing the sample in a punch type shear device, with a total transaction of 71558 tons throughout the year; The average transaction price in Yunnan was 23094 yuan/ton, an increase of 3136 yuan/ton over the average price of the previous year. The highest price was 27808 yuan/ton in August, and the lowest price was 12014 yuan/ton in mid December. A total of 57438 tons were traded throughout the year

(III) domestic main sales areas. In 2008, the average price of domestic SCR5 standard glue in Shanghai market was 22096 yuan/ton, an average increase of 1857 yuan/ton over the previous year. The highest price was 28000 yuan/ton in August, and the lowest price was 1o300 yuan/ton in mid December; The average price in Qingdao is 21977 yuan/ton, an average increase of 1860 yuan/ton over the previous year. The highest price is 28000 yuan/ton in early July, and the lowest price is 102oo yuan/ton in mid December; The average price in Tianjin is 22129 yuan/ton, an average increase of 1893 yuan/ton over the previous year. The highest price is 28000 yuan/ton in June, and the lowest price is 1o5o0 yuan/ton in mid December

II. Analysis of the reasons for the sharp fluctuations in natural rubber prices in 2008

in the first half of 2008, the financial crisis was in the initial stage, and the global economy still showed a trend of rapid development. The US dollar depreciated sharply, and commodities denominated in US dollars rose sharply. The international crude oil price was used as a barometer of bulk commodity prices, In addition, synthetic rubber, a by-product of crude oil, and natural rubber, which has endless service, are mutually substituted. Unscrewing the oil delivery valve makes the test bench rise by 10mm. The sharp rise in its price has driven the international price of natural rubber up sharply. However, the trend of domestic natural rubber was very weak before May, and it came out of the first anti seasonal market in 2008. From December to march of the next year, the main domestic production areas were in the cut-off period, and the monthly resources were green and yellow. In previous years, there was generally a wave of seasonal rise. However, due to the high domestic social inventory, the domestic natural rubber price went out of the trend that deviated from the foreign market, and the price oscillated and fell. However, after entering may, affected by the ice and snow disaster in the south at the beginning of the year, a large area of diseases and cold damage occurred in the main production areas of Hainan and Yunnan, and the opening and cutting of the two main production areas were delayed for about a month and a half. Without new resources, a large amount of social inventory was consumed, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange fell sharply from about 100000 tons at the beginning of the year to less than 20000 tons. Under the dual influence of small domestic inventory and the continuous rise in the price of natural rubber abroad, Domestic natural rubber rose sharply after May, from about 22000 yuan per ton at the end of April to 28000 yuan per ton in mid June, marking the second off-season market in 2008

In the second half of 2008, the financial crisis caused by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis broke out in an all-round way, and gradually spread from the financial field to the real economy. The global economic situation took a sharp turn, the U.S. dollar appreciated sharply, and the bulk commodities represented by the international crude oil price continued to plummet. Affected by this, the price of natural rubber began to decline gradually, especially after October. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has seen nine rare daily limits, down more than 65%

the reasons for the sharp rise and fall of natural rubber prices in 2008 mainly include the following aspects:

(I) natural factors. Natural rubber is an industrial agricultural product. Its growth has certain requirements for geographical and climatic conditions. Typhoons or tropical storms, continuous rainy days, droughts, frosts and pests will affect production and cause resource shortages. For example, the cold injury, freezing injury and powdery mildew disease at the beginning of the year caused the anti seasonal price rise

(II) global economic situation. In China, as an important strategic material, natural rubber, together with coal, steel and crude oil, is one of the four major industrial raw materials. 7O% of its total consumption is used in the automobile tire industry, and the quality of the global economic situation directly affects automobile consumption. Therefore, the closer the relationship between natural rubber and macro-economy is, the more obvious the market price operation of natural rubber in 2008 is dominated by financial attributes, However, the fundamentals of the coherent introduction of the value of the fatigue testing machine itself have retreated to the second place

(III) foreign natural rubber prices. According to the statistics of China Rubber Industry Association, the consumption of natural rubber (including composite rubber) in China exceeded 3.1 million tons in 2007, while China's domestic natural rubber was only 590000 tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of less than 2O%. Therefore, the fluctuation of foreign rubber prices has a great impact on domestic prices. In particular, the smuggling of glue and composite glue in Vietnam has a great impact on the domestic market. In recent years, nearly 40 million tons of Vietnamese smuggled glue and more than 500000 tons of composite glue have entered the Chinese market every year, and their prices directly affect the domestic market prices. For example, after the "National Day" in 2008, the lowest price of 3L smuggled glue in Vietnam was only more than 8ooo per ton, making the sales of domestic standard glue even worse

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