The tense situation of natural rubber supply in th

2022-07-27
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The tight supply of natural rubber will intensify in the coming years

participants at the world rubber conference held in Kuala Lumpur recently said that the tight supply of natural rubber around the world will intensify in the coming years because demand continues to exceed supply

an official of the international rubber survey group (IRSG) said that the world rubber supply shortage will increase to 820000 tons by 2010, and the supply gap is expected to be 250000 tons in 2006. Darren Cooper, a senior statistician, said that the price of natural rubber had risen by 54% in the past year. Supported by the strong demand for tires driven by economic growth, the world GDP grew rapidly. However, IRSG officials refused to predict the impact of supply shortages on prices. Hidde Smith, Secretary General of IRSG, said that a few months ago, IRSG received a request from European and American rubber associations and governments not to make price forecasts, because it was worried that price forecasts might give too much stimulus to the market

the output of natural rubber will never increase significantly. The low price in the 1990s led small farmers to reduce the number of seeds planted. The high price in the past two years had the same impact, because although the price rose, farmers tried to maximize their interests. Therefore, IRSG predicts that the planting area of rubber trees in their production peaks will decrease in the coming years, and during this period, the situation of supply and demand of natural rubber will intensify. Because rubber trees need 7 years to mature, new high-yield rubber trees planted in India and Malaysia can only start to produce rubber in 20 years with the economic recovery

said Sajen Peter, chairman of the Indian rubber exchange. The large planting area of rubber trees previously planted in India will lead to the reduction of natural rubber production before 2012. Peter said: "the output of natural rubber may decrease rather than increase slightly, so the output of natural rubber will never increase significantly." The exchange does not predict how much the output will decrease from 46 to 2010, but it is expected that the output of natural rubber in India will be 831000 tons in the fiscal year (April March), with a growth rate of 3.5%

the next seven years will be crucial for natural rubber futures. It is expected that the supply of natural rubber in the world will be tight, and rubber consumers will have to find ways to make up for the gap. How they make up for the gap will be the key to the futures price trend. Smith of IRSG said: "because there will be a supply gap in these years, it is a very critical year. This gap will be filled by consumption. Interpretation of the current situation and development trend of the global carbon fiber and its composite industry, but there will also be other ways. If so, will the situation be reversed? We don't know yet. The development of science and technology in the coming years is very important." Smith said that the expectation that it would take more time to increase the supply of weather rubber than that of synthetic rubber was not very accurate. "It's easy to expand the factory, but if you start from scratch, it depends on the city where the factory is located," he said It takes four years for Europe and the United States to start because of environmental requirements, but it is "much easier" in China. Therefore, although consumers have to use more synthetic rubber, the worldwide use of synthetic rubber as a substitute will not happen. "Four years is not a very long time compared with the fast-growing rubber trees." However, Smith said that the use of substitutes will reduce the proportion of natural rubber in total rubber consumption from 42% today to 37% by 2020

if the world's natural rubber production can meet the demand as expected by 2010, SMI has threatened environmental protection. T said that the price is unlikely to decline. "I am not worried unless something happens in the manufacturing sector." In fact, several speakers emphasized the importance of increasing production to prices. B.C. sekhar, former president of the international rubber survey and Development Association, said that the rubber industry should pay less attention to the price and ensure that the supply of natural rubber can meet the demand. "What we should pay more attention to is the worldwide production."

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